ClarivoxxBy Abdessamad Ghanem

Free tool

Renewal Forecast Calculator by Account Health

Forecast renewal ARR = Σ (ARR up for renewal in each health band × its renewal likelihood). Forecast gross retention = forecast renewal ARR ÷ ARR up for renewal × 100. $1.2M green at 95%, $500k yellow at 75% and $300k red at 40% forecast $1.635M, or 81.8% of $2M.

ARR up for renewal this period

Forecast renewal ARR

$1,635,000

$165,000 short of your 90% target. Saving yellow accounts is usually cheaper than rescuing red ones: start there.

Forecast gross retention

81.8%

ARR at risk

$365,000

Forecast = $1,200,000 × 95% + $500,000 × 75% + $300,000 × 40% = $1,635,000
GRR = $1,635,000 ÷ $2,000,000 = 81.8%

Frequently asked questions

How do you forecast renewals?
List the ARR up for renewal in the period, group it by risk (for example green, yellow and red health), give each group a likelihood based on your past renewal rates, and add up ARR × likelihood. Update it every week as accounts move between groups.
What renewal likelihood should I use for each health band?
Use your own history: the share of green, yellow and red accounts that actually renewed over the last four quarters. Without history, 90–95% for green, 60–75% for yellow and 30–40% for red is a common starting point.
How is a renewal forecast different from NRR?
A renewal forecast looks ahead at contracts coming up for renewal, before they renew. NRR looks back at what happened to the whole customer base over a period, including expansion. Forecast accuracy is checked against the renewals that actually closed.

About the author

Abdessamad Ghanem

Customer Experience & Customer Success Consultant · Founder of Clarivoxx

Abdessamad Ghanem works across Customer Support, Sales, Customer Success, Account Management and Partner Management. He writes Clarivoxx Insights for B2B SaaS professionals who own retention, adoption and customer outcomes.

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