How to Run a Renewal Risk Review (Scoring Model Included)

Here is how I run a renewal risk review. A renewal risk review is a meeting every two weeks where you score each account in the renewal window on a few weighted factors and agree a save plan for the low scorers. The renewal risk score I use is Σ (factor weight × factor score from 1 to 5) ÷ 5 × 100: an account with a weighted sum of 2.20 out of 5 scores 44, which puts it in the high-risk tier.

This is Part 2 of The Renewal Playbook. Part 1 built a five-stage renewal process for B2B SaaS, and this part turns its first stage into a scoring model and a meeting. To see what actually renews each quarter, use the free renewal rate calculator.

Why isn't a health score enough for renewals?

A health score mostly reflects usage across your whole base. A renewal risk score covers only accounts near a contract date and adds commercial factors: budget, buyer changes, price increases and competitors.

An account can look healthy and still be at risk. With one hotel partner I worked with, bookings were steady and tickets were few, so the account looked green everywhere. Then a new regional director arrived and started reviewing every distribution contract. Usage data told us nothing about that. A five-minute call with our contact would have.

If you already run a customer health score model, use it as one input. The guide to customer success metrics shows where it fits.

How do you calculate a renewal risk score?

Keep the model small enough to score an account in five minutes.

Renewal confidence score = Σ (Weight × Factor score) ÷ 5 × 100

Factor score  = 1 (poor) to 5 (strong) for each factor
Weight        = the factor's share of the total; weights add up to 1.00
Factors       = Usage trend 0.30, Champion and sponsor 0.25, Value realized 0.15,
                Support signal 0.15, Commercial factors 0.15
Tiers         = 75 to 100 low risk, 50 to 74 watch, below 50 high risk

What each factor means:

• Usage trend: active users over the last 90 days against the prior 90.
• Champion and sponsor: an engaged champion and access to the budget owner. A departed champion scores 1.
• Value realized: progress against the goals agreed at kickoff or the last review.
• Support signal: open critical issues and recent escalations.
• Commercial factors: budget pressure, a planned price increase or a competitor evaluation.

What does a scored account look like?

Here is an illustrative example: a $140K ARR account whose champion left last quarter.

Factor	Weight	Score	Weighted
Usage trend	0.30	2	0.60
Champion and sponsor	0.25	1	0.25
Value realized	0.15	2	0.30
Support signal	0.15	4	0.60
Commercial factors	0.15	3	0.45
Total	1.00		2.20

The score is 2.20 ÷ 5 × 100 = 44, below the high-risk line of 50. This account needs a save plan now, not at day −30.

Risk score

Scoring one account with the five-factor model

Clarivoxx analysis

Account ARR$140K

Weighted sum2.20 / 5

Confidence score44 / 100

Risk tierHigh risk

The formula

Renewal confidence score = Σ (weight × factor score) ÷ 5 × 100. Here 0.30 × 2 + 0.25 × 1 + 0.15 × 2 + 0.15 × 4 + 0.15 × 3 = 2.20, and 2.20 ÷ 5 × 100 = 44, below the high-risk threshold of 50.

Treat the weights as a starting point and check them against real outcomes after two or three quarters.

How do you run a renewal risk review meeting?

Plan 45 to 60 minutes every two weeks, with CSMs, account managers and a CS leader.

1. Score before the meeting. The meeting is for decisions, not data entry.
2. Sort by ARR at risk, then check accounts that dropped 10 points or more since the last review.
3. Ask three questions per account: what changed, why, and what is the next action, with an owner and a date.
4. Update the forecast category so it reflects what the room just learned.

Review queue

Accounts to discuss first in the review

Clarivoxx analysis

Account A, $140K ARR, champion left

High risk

Account B, $95K ARR, usage down 30%

High risk

Account C, $120K ARR, budget review

Watch

Account D, $80K ARR, open escalation

Watch

How do I read the whole renewal portfolio?

Illustrative portfolio: 38 accounts renewing in the next 120 days, worth $2.9M.

Risk tier	Accounts	ARR	Share of ARR
Low risk (75–100)	21	$1.55M	53%
Watch (50–74)	11	$0.85M	29%
High risk (below 50)	6	$0.50M	17%

Shares are rounded. The high-risk tier holds $500K across only six accounts, so each one needs its own save plan. The watch tier is where next quarter's surprises come from. Check the result each quarter with the renewal rate calculator.

Risk portfolio

ARR in the renewal window by risk tier

Clarivoxx analysis

$0$0.8M$1.55M

Low risk (21 accounts)
$1.55M

Watch (11 accounts)
$0.85M

High risk (6 accounts)
$0.50M

Watch + high risk
$1.35M

$1.35M, or about 47% of ARR in the window, sits in the watch or high-risk tierShare of ARR at risk = ARR in tier ÷ total ARR in renewal window × 100

Six high-risk accounts hold $500K, so each needs its own save plan.

Which save play fits each weak factor?

Match each low factor score to a standard play:

• Low usage: training for the teams that stopped logging in.
• Lost champion: map the new stakeholders within two weeks and ask to meet the budget owner.
• Weak value: a short outcomes review with goals reachable before the renewal date.
• Poor support signal: a named technical contact and a written fix plan.
• Commercial pressure: bring in the account manager early with options, not discounts.

Tie these plays to your customer health score alerts, so a drop between meetings still reaches someone.

What I've seen in practice

• Champion loss beats usage as a warning. On one team, we found that most of our losses had a low champion score and a fine usage score, so we moved weight from usage to champion.
• Green dashboards miss commercial change. The hotel partner above is the reason commercial factors have their own line.
• Score before you meet. If scores are filled in live, the hour goes on data entry and nobody leaves with a save plan.
• Automate what is objective. Usage and support signal can come from your systems. Champion and commercial factors stay CSM judgment.

My renewal risk dashboard

I open every review with this table, then go to the accounts. This review uses the portfolio and Account A from the examples above.

Metric	Target	This review	Last review	Change
High-risk accounts	3	6	5	+1
High-risk ARR	$0.25M	$0.50M	$0.40M	+$0.10M
Watch ARR	$0.60M	$0.85M	$0.80M	+$0.05M
ARR in watch or high risk	30%	47%	43%	+4 pts
High-risk with a save plan	6	4	3	+1
Account A score	50 or more	44	58	−14

Account A dropped 14 points in two weeks, so it goes first on the agenda. Then I chase the save-plan row: two high-risk accounts still have no named next step.

This week, score your five largest renewals in the next 120 days and book a save-plan conversation for any that lands below 50.

Frequently asked questions

How often should you run a renewal risk review?

Every two weeks for accounts within 120 days of renewal. Monthly is too slow once a quote is out.

Should the renewal risk score be automated?

Partly. Automate usage and support signal. Keep champion and commercial factors as CSM judgment, because no system sees a new director arriving.

What is the difference between a renewal risk score and a health score?

A health score tracks the whole base, mostly from usage. A renewal risk score covers accounts near a contract date and adds buyer and budget factors.

How many factors should the model have?

Five is enough to start. More factors make scoring slower without making it more accurate, until you have outcome data to test them.

Sources

• Customer success, Wikipedia
• The Value of Keeping the Right Customers, Amy Gallo, Harvard Business Review (2014)